Daniel McDowell

Daniel McDowell studies international political economy, finance and currency competition. As at 1 November 2026, Syracuse University lists him as Professor in its Political Science Department, Maxwell Advisory Board Professor of International Affairs and Associate Director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs. His books include Bucking the Buck (2023) and Brother, Can You Spare a Billion? (2017). [Maxwell faculty profile; McDowell, research bibliography.]

The conditional backlash argument

In an interview originally published in 2022 and republished by E-International Relations in August 2026, McDowell argued that sanctions introduce political risk into governments' decisions about dollar dependence. Governments facing sanctions, or fearing future restrictions, may seek to reduce dollar use in investment and cross-border payments. He distinguished such policies from successful de-dollarisation and explicitly rejected treating his argument as a forecast that sanctions would displace the dollar at the top of the currency hierarchy. [McDowell, E-International Relations interview, answer on sanctions and dollar status.]

The same interview presents restraint as a way of preserving the instrument's usefulness, rather than proposing that Washington abandon financial sanctions. It also treats confidence in a currency and the convenience of using it as constraints on alternatives. These are his attributed arguments, not verified current measurements of Russia's reserves, Chinese payment systems or the effects of every sanctions campaign. [McDowell, E-International Relations interview, answers on sanctions and central banks.]

Subsequent argument

In a 4 February 2026 article coauthored with Bart Piasecki and Jessie Yin, McDowell distinguished exchange-rate depreciation from changes in the dollar's international role. The authors argued that sanctions concerns had affected a relatively limited group of states, whereas broader doubts about US policy predictability and central-bank independence could influence a wider range of investors. Their discussion identifies a possible channel for reduced demand and financing pressure; it does not establish that sanctions caused all subsequent currency or portfolio movements. [McDowell, Piasecki and Yin, "Understanding the vibe shift on the dollar".]

Significance and limits

McDowell's contribution to de-dollarisation and backlash analysis is to separate political incentives to reduce exposure from the ability to do so and from a change in the currency hierarchy. Specific claims about reserve composition, payment-system adoption and causation require their own dated evidence. The interview and commentary used here establish his public arguments; they do not replace the books' complete empirical case studies. [Editorial synthesis of the 2022 interview and coauthored 2026 article.]

See also

De-dollarisation as backlash dynamic · Weaponisation backlash · Dollar hegemony and exorbitant privilege · Reserve diversification (gold accumulation) · CIPS · SPFS · Agathe Demarais

Sources

• Syracuse University, Maxwell School, "Daniel McDowell", full faculty profile checked 1 November 2026.
• Daniel McDowell, "Interview: Daniel McDowell", E-International Relations, originally 2022; archive republication 22 August 2026. The archive supplies only the original year. Its older job title and descriptions of forthcoming work are not treated as current.
• Daniel McDowell, Bart Piasecki and Jessie Yin, "Understanding the vibe shift on the dollar", Atlantic Council, 4 February 2026. Full coauthored commentary, not an independently replicated causal study.
• Daniel McDowell, Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar (Oxford University Press, 2023), and Brother, Can You Spare a Billion? The United States, the IMF, and the International Lender of Last Resort (Oxford University Press, 2017). Bibliographic identity verified against the author's research bibliography; complete book texts were not available for this account. Descriptive blurbs and abstracts are not used to establish body claims.